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The Chinese economy is not what recent history might have you think

In a speech to the Investors Chronicle and Global Fixed Income Institute Roundtable in Amsterdam, Graeme Leach challenged conventional wisdom on the Chinese economy, arguing that an economic crisis is almost certain in the coming years, with profound implications for Chinese monetary and fiscal policy and the global economy.

Among the key themes:

  • When you hear that "this time it's different" remember that it almost never is.
  • When it comes to China in 2018, you can't see the road ahead through the rear view mirror.
  • The old economic model is broken, but the new one won't arrive in time to avert a crisis.
  • At best, China will fall into the middle income trap, but the sheer scale of the debt crisis means that the outlook is likely to be far worse.

Read the transcript of the rest his speech here 


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